Key Highlights:

• Germany’s Q1 GDP rose 0.2%, driven by solid domestic demand.
• France disappointed with just 0.1% growth, weighed by weak exports.
• Spain (0.6%) and Italy (0.3%) outperformed regional peers.
• French inflation held at 0.8%, while German CPI edged lower.
• EUR/USD holds near 1.1372, on track for a 5% monthly gain.

The euro traded in a tight range on Monday, holding near 1.1372 as investors digested a patchwork of growth data across the Eurozone. While Germany met forecasts with 0.2% GDP growth in Q1, France fell short, expanding by just 0.1% amid slower investment and trade. On the upside, Spain and Italy posted stronger-than-expected gains, signalling diverging momentum within the bloc.

Despite the uneven data, the euro has advanced over 5% this month against the U.S. dollar. Much of this strength comes from continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and concerns over economic leadership from the White House.

🧾 Inflation Signals Remain Muted

Data out of France and Germany’s regional states suggest price pressures remain subdued. French inflation held steady at 0.8%, while Germany saw a slight easing in CPI.

These soft readings offer little urgency for the European Central Bank to shift gears, especially as policymakers continue to prioritise stability heading into the summer.

📉 Technical Snapshot: Euro Awaits Breakout or Breakdown

EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.13725, consolidating between key levels of 1.13548 support and 1.13995 resistance.

🖼️ Chart: Euro stays range-bound between 1.1355 and 1.1400 – via VT Markets app

Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) are clustered together, a sign of market indecision. The MACD remains close to the zero line, with a slight downward tilt—hinting at weak bearish momentum. However, the shortening histogram bars may suggest slowing selling pressure.

If bulls can clear 1.13995, the pair could gain bullish traction. On the flip side, a sustained move below 1.1355 would shift momentum back in favour of the bears.

For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, lacking conviction in either direction.

Picture: Euro remains in consolidation mode between 1.1355 and 1.1400 as traders await directional clarity, as seen on the VT Markets app

🔮 Outlook: Eurozone and U.S. Data in Focus

Looking ahead, traders are gearing up for a critical week of economic updates. Tuesday’s ECB Survey on Inflation Expectations is on watch, as it could hint at whether the central bank will revise its forward guidance.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, investors are closely following U.S. inflation, GDP revisions, and Fed rhetoric—all of which could further sway EUR/USD positioning.

With the euro near monthly highs and the dollar under pressure, the next leg for the pair may depend on which side offers clearer policy direction.

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