Key Highlights:
- USDX hovers near 99.18, holding recent gains ahead of key U.S. data releases.
- Analysts at Commerzbank suggest weak economic numbers may pressure Trump to ease tariffs.
- Investors await ADP employment figures and Q1 GDP data due later today.
- Market sentiment stays cautious amid ongoing trade and policy concerns.
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) remained steady around the 99.18 mark on Tuesday, reflecting cautious optimism as traders brace for a fresh batch of economic indicators. The index reached an intraday peak of 99.221 before retreating slightly during the U.S. session.
Amid speculation that weaker-than-expected data could trigger a policy reversal, attention turned to Washington. Analysts at Commerzbank, including strategist Thu Lan Nguyen, noted that poor results may push the White House to reassess its stance on trade tariffs. President Trump has already paused some retaliatory measures earlier this year, suggesting room for further adjustments.
🔍 Technical Snapshot: Dollar Gains Momentum
From a technical perspective, the USDX is showing signs of stabilisation after rebounding from the 98.644 support zone. The index has climbed back to 99.181, now challenging resistance near 99.226.
Short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30-day) are now sloping upward—an early bullish signal indicating growing interest from buyers. The MACD indicator also reflects this shift, displaying a bullish crossover and a rising histogram.
While upward momentum remains moderate, a decisive break above 99.23 could open the door for a rally towards the next resistance range around 99.45 to 99.50.
🖼️ Chart: USDX bounces above 99.00, eyeing a retest of resistance at 99.23 – as viewed on the VT Markets app
Still, traders should remain cautious. If the index fails to break above this resistance, short-term consolidation may follow.
Picture: Dollar regains traction above 99.00 as bullish momentum firms, testing key resistance near 99.23, seen on the VT Markets app
🔮 What to Watch Next
With ADP private payroll numbers and first-quarter GDP data on the docket, markets are watching closely to see if a slowdown is enough to prompt a policy rethink.
Should the results disappoint significantly, it could bolster expectations that the Trump administration may pivot towards a softer trade approach—either to stimulate growth or calm investor nerves.
Such developments may also influence the Federal Reserve’s outlook, adding another layer of uncertainty for USD traders.
